Apple's iPhone Launch in China - Doomed to Be a Failure?

Apple officially introduced the iPhone in China lastphone is subsidized only if purchased as part of a
week. Through a partnership with one of China'ssubscription package, starting at almost 150 yuan per
telecom providers, China Unicom, the company hadmonth. Besides the fact that such subscriptions are not
hoped that its launch here would be as successful as itvery popular in China, it simply makes the phone too
was in the US and Europe. Sales have been veryexpensive compared to its fake or smuggled
disappointing however, with only 5,000 subscriberscounterparts. Most people will always prefer a real
signing up so far. To many, this comes as no surprise.product as opposed to a fake one. Many will consider
There are two camps among those that have beenpaying more for it, if the price is right. In this case, the
following Apple's plans in China: the optimistic, fairprice is not right - as a fully functional and identical fake
weather analysts that remain convinced the iPhone williPhone costs one tenth of the original phone sold by
do well; and the more cynical camp where generalChina Unicom.
opinion is that Apple should be lucky to sell any iPhonesPrice differences are not the only problem caused by
in China at all, considering the amount of fakes thatfake and smuggled goods. The nearly year-long
already flood the market.exposure to the iPhone that the Chinese market has
There is some truth to both sides' arguments but asnow had suggests that the iPhone's potential market
always, it is important to realize what exactly is goingshare is going to be capped at a far lower percentage
on here. First of all, let's look at the deal Apple madethan it otherwise would, simply because most people
with China Unicom to distribute and sell its phones.who would want an iPhone already have one by now.
While the introduction of the handsets in the US andThe phone is no longer a novelty. It is a very small
Europe was based on a revenue sharing model thatgroup of people that said, back in 2008, "No, instead of
split profits between Apple and its telecom partner; inbuying an iPhone abroad or a fake one in China, I will
China, Apple has basically just agreed to sell 5,000,000wait one year for the phone to be introduced here
iPhones to China Unicom at a price of 2,000 yuan perofficially, and then pay 5,000 yuan for one".
unit. This is a clever strategy by Apple to reduce theirThe more optimistic analysts seem to have a lot of
risk, because if China Unicom can sell 5 million phones,faith in the Chinese consumers. Surely, in a market of
they know their product works. On the other hand, if700 million mobile phone users there is enough room
they do not, Apple still walks away with a 1.5 billionfor the real iPhone, especially when as China develops
USD deal. So, in breaking with their traditional way ofand GDP increases, more and more Chinese
doing business, Apple must have realized there wascustomers will see the merit of owning a genuine
some risk associated with the iPhone introduction inproduct? They look at numbers and see such
China.staggering figures that even if just a tiny percentage
This risk, of course, lies in the knowledge that thereof those were to go towards Apple, the profits would
have been millions of 'iPhones' in China for months priorstill be great. The good news for these people is that it
to the official launch already. Many of them bought inseems like Apple's initial target of 5 million sales was
the US or Hong Kong, but most of them nearlyalready reached before the official launch date.
identical copies produced in China and sold at aWhether these phones will ever make it to the
fraction of the price that the real ones are now goingcustomer (or remain in a China Unicom warehouse for
for. The iPhone is being sold by China Unicom foryears to come), remains to be seen.
5,000 yuan ($732) or more in a standalone deal. The