| The race between LTE and WiMax, intriguing before | | | | which may have significantly different agendas and |
| the economy crashed, now is even more interesting. | | | | priorities - is a significant consideration. |
| The basic scenario is that WiMax is already is in | | | | The introduction of gear that uses a new networking |
| commercial deployment - with Clearwire's Clear | | | | protocol is a gradual process. More accurately, it is a |
| service and others - while LTE is rushing into | | | | set of gradual processes. The chips may be integrated |
| production and has had commitments from | | | | into bigger devices - laptops instead of phones, for |
| powerhouse networks such as AT&T and | | | | instance - first. For various reasons, there generally are |
| Verizon. The bad financial landscape makes every | | | | pre-production versions of phones that house the LTE |
| move even more critical. The margin of error -- never | | | | functionality separately. These units will be bulky and |
| great for an expensive new technology - is even | | | | eat batteries alive and thus aren't intended for wide |
| smaller during trying times. | | | | deployment. A third issue is the preparation of the |
| That's why every piece of news, good or bad, is | | | | various technical and business infrastructure elements |
| important. What is being announced is important in its | | | | beyond the core technology necessary to support |
| own right - and also can push the momentum toward | | | | large scale commercial numbers. The key is gating all |
| or away from the technology. The latest news is | | | | of these fluid evolutionary cycles against the key |
| significant - and not very good for LTE. GigaOm | | | | element: Customer demand. Some of these issues are |
| reports on word from Deutsche Bank that Qualcomm | | | | discussed at Unstrung. The bottom line is that Verizon |
| chipsets for data cards will be delayed until the second | | | | pronouncements that LTE will be available in a certain |
| half of 2010 and for handsets until "well into" the next | | | | amount of markets by a certain date is tentative and |
| year. The story goes into detail, but the bottom line is | | | | clearly open to delay. |
| that this will play havoc with the launch. Simply, the | | | | A very interesting WirelessWeek piece talks a bit |
| development of a high-speed network is rendered a | | | | more generally about the transition from one platform |
| moot point if few people have the technology in their | | | | to the next. There seems to be good news and |
| mobile devices to take advantage of it. | | | | challenges. The good news is that "it seems the |
| In some instances, it is important to read between the | | | | industry has learned a few lessons." It is likely to start |
| lines. A recent blog posting reports upon comments | | | | with larger scale integrations and, in general, avoid |
| made by Michael Mamaghani, Qualcomm's director of | | | | some of the missteps of the past. Thus, for instance, it |
| marketing, at the Globalpress Summit Conference last | | | | may first deploy the chips in dongles instead of |
| week in San Francisco. Mamaghani said all the right | | | | immediately putting the technology into cell phones. On |
| good things about LTE, which his company is backing. | | | | the other side of the coin, there simply are more |
| He also said all the right dismissive things about WiMax, | | | | protocols to be integrated as the industry ages. The |
| which it is not. The subtleties involved how he | | | | bottom line is that there still is a lot of detail-oriented |
| addressed the timeframe for LTE. He first described | | | | work to be done. |
| the gap between the finalization of the 3G standard | | | | Real rollouts are worlds away from press release |
| and what he considers mass commercialization. He | | | | fantasy lands. It remains to be seen whether the |
| then used that time period to predict that LTE won't hit | | | | delays materialize, dissipate or get worse. What is |
| the masses in a big way until the 2012 to 2014 | | | | certain is that Verizon Wireless was pushing for earlier |
| timeframe. The underlying message is that the timing | | | | deployments than once thought likely, and was trying |
| of the network rollout is not completely up to the | | | | to build excitement. From that perspective, any delays |
| carrier. The attitude and opinion of vendors - some of | | | | will not be helpful. |